· Analysis updated 22:50 UTC
Slimbridge vs Willand Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Slimbridge and 1.37 for Willand Rovers, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Slimbridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Slimbridge win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slimbridge home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Willand Rovers away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slimbridge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Slimbridge and 1.37 for Willand Rovers, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.3%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Slimbridge
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hungerford Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Willand Rovers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baffins Milton Rovers · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Supermarine · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorchester Town · 0-1 (L)
Willand Rovers
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falmouth Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tavistock · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:22.000Z · A vs Sporting Club Inkberrow · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:22.000Z · H vs Bishop's Cleeve · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brixham · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slimbridge win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.