· Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Slivnishki geroy vs Kostinbrod Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Slivnishki geroy and 1.30 for Kostinbrod, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Slivnishki geroy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slivnishki geroy home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kostinbrod away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Slivnishki geroy
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Razlog · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Natsional Sofia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chavdar Etropole · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia III · 1-1 (D)
Kostinbrod
- 2026-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Razlog · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Etropole · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia III · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Balkan Botevgrad · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasitsa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Slivnishki geroy 0-3 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Slivnishki geroy 1-1 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · Slivnishki geroy 0-2 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · Slivnishki geroy 2-0 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · Slivnishki geroy 2-2 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · Slivnishki geroy 2-3 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Slivnishki geroy 1-1 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2022-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Slivnishki geroy 1-1 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
- 2021-11-10T12:00:00.000Z · Slivnishki geroy 1-0 Kostinbrod (Third League - Southwest)
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 30 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Bansko | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | Kostinbrod | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 5 | Strumska Slava | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Septemvri Sofia II | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Balkan Botevgrad | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 14 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Natsional Sofia | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Kyustendil | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.