· Analysis updated 17:44 UTC
Slivnishki geroy vs Slavia Sofia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Slivnishki geroy and 1.51 for Slavia Sofia II, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Slivnishki geroy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slivnishki geroy home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Slavia Sofia II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slivnishki geroy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Slivnishki geroy and 1.51 for Slavia Sofia II, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.1%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Slivnishki geroy
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Balkan Botevgrad · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kostinbrod · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasitsa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia II · 1-0 (W)
Slavia Sofia II
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pirin Razlog · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Natsional Sofia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chavdar Etropole · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Sofia III · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Balkan Botevgrad · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 13 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.