Sloboda Tuzla vs Bratstvo Gračanica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sloboda Tuzla and 0.84 for Bratstvo Gračanica, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Sloboda Tuzla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sloboda Tuzla win

58.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 0.84

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sloboda Tuzla home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bratstvo Gračanica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sloboda Tuzla win59%

Draw24%

Bratstvo Gračanica win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.3%
2–011.5%
1–111.1%
2–19.6%
0–07.7%

Recent form

Sloboda Tuzla

2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Posušje · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs GOŠK Gabela · 2-0 (W)

Bratstvo Gračanica

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zvijezda Gradačac · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TOŠK Tešanj · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Budućnost Banovići · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Tomislav · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitez · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 0-1 Bratstvo Gračanica (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 1-0 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
2025-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 1-1 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
2024-05-26T15:30:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 2-0 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
2023-11-04T12:30:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 1-2 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
2017-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 2-1 Bratstvo Gračanica (Cup)

1st League - FBiH table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Posušje	11	8	3	0	10	27
2	Travnik	11	8	1	2	12	25
3	Sloboda Tuzla	11	6	3	2	10	21
4	Stupčanica Olovo	11	6	2	3	13	20
5	Igman Konjic	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	GOŠK Gabela	10	5	2	3	5	17
7	Bratstvo Gračanica	10	3	5	2	0	14
8	TOŠK Tešanj	10	4	2	4	0	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	11	3	4	4	1	13
10	Vitez	11	3	3	5	-5	12
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	11	3	2	6	1	11
12	Radnik Hadžići	11	3	1	7	-6	10
13	Budućnost Banovići	11	2	4	5	-9	10
14	Rudar Kakanj	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Čapljina	11	2	2	7	-13	8
16	Tomislav	11	2	2	7	-15	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sloboda Tuzla win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.