Sloboda Tuzla vs Bratstvo Gračanica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sloboda Tuzla and 0.95 for Bratstvo Gračanica, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Sloboda Tuzla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sloboda Tuzla win

52.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sloboda Tuzla home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bratstvo Gračanica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sloboda Tuzla win52%

Draw25%

Bratstvo Gračanica win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–012.6%
1–112.0%
2–09.9%
2–19.4%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Sloboda Tuzla

2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Posušje · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs GOŠK Gabela · 2-0 (W)

Bratstvo Gračanica

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zvijezda Gradačac · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TOŠK Tešanj · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Budućnost Banovići · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Tomislav · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitez · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 0-1 Bratstvo Gračanica (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 1-0 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
2025-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 1-1 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
2024-05-26T15:30:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 2-0 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
2023-11-04T12:30:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 1-2 Bratstvo Gračanica (1st League - FBiH)
2017-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · Sloboda Tuzla 2-1 Bratstvo Gračanica (Cup)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sloboda Tuzla win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.