Sloboda Tuzla vs TOŠK Tešanj Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Sloboda Tuzla and 0.65 for TOŠK Tešanj, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Sloboda Tuzla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sloboda Tuzla win

67.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sloboda Tuzla home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TOŠK Tešanj away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sloboda Tuzla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 21% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Sloboda Tuzla and 0.65 for TOŠK Tešanj, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sloboda Tuzla win68%

Draw21%

TOŠK Tešanj win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–014.7%
2–014.1%
1–19.5%
2–19.2%
3–09.1%

Recent form

Sloboda Tuzla

2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Bihać · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Travnik · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Posušje · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs GOŠK Gabela · 2-0 (W)

TOŠK Tešanj

2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Rudar Kakanj · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Čapljina · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Igman Konjic · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bratstvo Gračanica · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stupčanica Olovo · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1st League - FBiH table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Posušje	11	8	3	0	10	27
2	Travnik	11	8	1	2	12	25
3	Sloboda Tuzla	11	6	3	2	10	21
4	Stupčanica Olovo	11	6	2	3	13	20
5	GOŠK Gabela	11	6	2	3	7	20
6	Igman Konjic	11	5	4	2	4	19
7	TOŠK Tešanj	11	5	2	4	4	17
8	Bratstvo Gračanica	11	3	5	3	-2	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	11	3	4	4	1	13
10	Vitez	11	3	3	5	-5	12
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	11	3	2	6	1	11
12	Radnik Hadžići	11	3	1	7	-6	10
13	Budućnost Banovići	11	2	4	5	-9	10
14	Rudar Kakanj	11	2	2	7	-12	8
15	Čapljina	11	2	2	7	-13	8
16	Tomislav	11	2	2	7	-15	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sloboda Tuzla win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.