Stadion Luke · Referee A. Njegomirovic · Analysis updated 06:06 UTC
Sloga Doboj vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sloga Doboj and 0.93 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Sloga Doboj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sloga Doboj home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–013.2%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Sloga Doboj
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Sarajevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Bijeljina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 0-0 (D)
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BSK Banja Luka · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Bijeljina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · Sloga Doboj 1-1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · Sloga Doboj 0-3 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-03-10T17:30:00.000Z · Sloga Doboj 0-1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (Cup)
- 2026-03-07T14:00:00.000Z · Sloga Doboj 0-3 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-02-25T15:00:00.000Z · Sloga Doboj 1-0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (Cup)
- 2025-12-17T15:00:00.000Z · Sloga Doboj 0-0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Sloga Doboj 0-0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-05-11T15:30:00.000Z · Sloga Doboj 0-1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-12-04T12:00:00.000Z · Sloga Doboj 4-2 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-09-01T16:45:00.000Z · Sloga Doboj 1-1 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (Premijer Liga)
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Čelik | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.