Stadion Luke · Referee N. Ljajic · Analysis updated 10:13 UTC
Sloga Doboj vs Zrinjski Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Sloga Doboj and 1.45 for Zrinjski, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Zrinjski the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zrinjski win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sloga Doboj home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zrinjski away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zrinjski to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 18% / 27% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Sloga Doboj and 1.45 for Zrinjski, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.9%
- 0–212.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–28.6%
Recent form
Sloga Doboj
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Sarajevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Bijeljina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 0-0 (D)
Zrinjski
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Bijeljina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Velež · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Siroki Brijeg · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Čelik | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zrinjski win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.