Slovácko II vs Karviná II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Slovácko II and 1.15 for Karviná II, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Slovácko II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Slovácko II win

55.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Slovácko II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karviná II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slovácko II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Slovácko II and 1.15 for Karviná II, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Slovácko II win55%

Draw22%

Karviná II win23%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–19.8%
1–08.9%
2–08.6%
3–16.3%

Recent form

Slovácko II

2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Frýdek-Místek · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Unie Hlubina · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hranice · 1-1 (D)

Karviná II

2026-10-25T09:15:00.000Z · H vs Hranice · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Sigma Olomouc II · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vítkovice · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Líšeň II · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uničov	14	10	2	2	14	32
2	Líšeň II	14	8	5	1	16	29
3	Frýdek-Místek	14	8	3	3	10	27
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	14	8	3	3	8	27
5	Sigma Olomouc II	14	8	1	5	11	25
6	Hranice	14	7	2	5	5	23
7	Unie Hlubina	14	6	3	5	3	21
8	Uherský Brod	14	6	3	5	1	21
9	Vítkovice	14	5	4	5	0	19
10	Slovácko II	14	5	3	6	5	18
11	Zlín II	14	5	3	6	-4	18
12	Hodonín	14	5	2	7	2	17
13	Karviná II	14	5	2	7	-2	17
14	Vrchovina	14	5	2	7	-13	17
15	Havířov	14	2	5	7	-11	11
16	Blansko	14	2	5	7	-14	11
17	Vsetín	14	3	1	10	-18	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	14	2	3	9	-13	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Slovácko II win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.