Slovácko II vs Vrchovina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Slovácko II and 1.05 for Vrchovina, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Slovácko II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Slovácko II win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Slovácko II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vrchovina away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Slovácko II win53%

Draw24%

Vrchovina win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–010.9%
2–19.7%
2–09.2%
0–16.7%

Recent form

Slovácko II

2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Frýdek-Místek · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Unie Hlubina · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hranice · 1-1 (D)

Vrchovina

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Unie Hlubina · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hranice · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko II · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · Slovácko II 1-3 Vrchovina (3. liga - MSFL)
2025-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · Slovácko II 0-0 Vrchovina (3. liga - MSFL)
2023-03-05T09:15:00.000Z · Slovácko II 1-3 Vrchovina (3. liga - MSFL)
2022-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · Slovácko II 1-1 Vrchovina (3. liga - MSFL)
2022-05-01T08:15:00.000Z · Slovácko II 2-0 Vrchovina (3. liga - MSFL)
2021-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · Slovácko II 2-1 Vrchovina (3. liga - MSFL)
2020-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · Slovácko II 1-1 Vrchovina (3. liga - MSFL)
2019-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · Slovácko II 0-2 Vrchovina (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Líšeň II	13	8	5	0	17	29
2	Uničov	13	9	2	2	13	29
3	Zbrojovka Brno II	13	8	3	2	10	27
4	Frýdek-Místek	13	7	3	3	7	24
5	Hranice	13	7	2	4	7	23
6	Sigma Olomouc II	13	7	1	5	6	22
7	Slovácko II	13	5	3	5	6	18
8	Unie Hlubina	13	5	3	5	2	18
9	Uherský Brod	13	5	3	5	0	18
10	Hodonín	13	5	2	6	3	17
11	Vítkovice	13	4	4	5	-2	16
12	Zlín II	13	4	3	6	-6	15
13	Karviná II	13	4	2	7	-4	14
14	Vrchovina	13	4	2	7	-15	14
15	Havířov	13	2	5	6	-9	11
16	Blansko	13	2	5	6	-11	11
17	Vsetín	13	3	1	9	-16	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	13	2	3	8	-8	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Slovácko II win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.