Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty · Analysis updated 22:29 UTC
Slovácko vs Pardubice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.45 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Pardubice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slovácko home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pardubice away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Slovácko
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neratovice-Byškovice · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pardubice · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Plzen · 1-1 (D)
Pardubice
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Žižkov · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozlovice · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Ostrava · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · Slovácko 0-0 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2026-02-21T14:00:00.000Z · Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2025-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Slovácko 1-1 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Slovácko 1-0 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2024-12-07T12:30:00.000Z · Slovácko 1-1 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2024-08-11T12:30:00.000Z · Slovácko 1-0 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2024-02-10T14:00:00.000Z · Slovácko 1-2 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2023-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · Slovácko 1-0 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2023-04-25T15:30:00.000Z · Slovácko 1-3 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
- 2022-11-06T14:00:00.000Z · Slovácko 1-0 Pardubice (Czech Liga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.