Tehelne Pole Stadion · Referee Felix Zwayer, Germany · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Slovan Bratislava vs Celje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Slovan Bratislava and 1.04 for Celje, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Slovan Bratislava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Slovan Bratislava win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celje away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slovan Bratislava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Slovan Bratislava and 1.04 for Celje, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–16.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 68.5% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +2.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.00 | 45.9% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.81 | 51.8% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 76.2% | 76.8% | 1.30 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 4.10 | 22.9% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.2% | 75.9% | 1.32 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 47.7% | 47.1% | 2.12 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 51.6% | 1.94 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 25.3% | 24.0% | 4.17 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.1% | 52.8% | 1.89 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Slovan Bratislava
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Skalica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Komárno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nitra · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-6 (L)
Celje
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Bravo · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Madrid | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Como | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Manchester City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | AEK Athens FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 22 | Sabah FA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 | Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | Bodo/Glimt | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 25 | AS Roma | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | Viking | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Fenerbahçe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 29 | Inter | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | FC Porto | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Slavia Praha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Lask Linz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Lille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Galatasaray | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slovan Bratislava win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.