· Referee F. Glova · Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Slovan Bratislava vs Dukla Banská Bystrica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Slovan Bratislava and 1.13 for Dukla Banská Bystrica, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Slovan Bratislava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Slovan Bratislava win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dukla Banská Bystrica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slovan Bratislava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Slovan Bratislava and 1.13 for Dukla Banská Bystrica, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.8%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Slovan Bratislava
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Skalica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Komárno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nitra · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-6 (L)
Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vranov nad Topľou · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Trencin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zemplín Michalovce · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Košice · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 4-0 Dukla Banská Bystrica (Super Liga)
- 2024-12-01T14:30:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 3-1 Dukla Banská Bystrica (Super Liga)
- 2024-08-25T16:00:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 2-0 Dukla Banská Bystrica (Super Liga)
- 2023-11-04T14:00:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 4-1 Dukla Banská Bystrica (Super Liga)
- 2023-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 2-2 Dukla Banská Bystrica (Super Liga)
- 2023-05-13T14:30:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 2-1 Dukla Banská Bystrica (Super Liga)
- 2023-04-16T15:30:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 4-0 Dukla Banská Bystrica (Super Liga)
- 2023-02-18T14:00:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 2-2 Dukla Banská Bystrica (Super Liga)
- 2023-02-07T15:00:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 2-1 Dukla Banská Bystrica (Cup)
- 2022-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 1-0 Dukla Banská Bystrica (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 29 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Slovan Bratislava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Žilina | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 9 | Skalica | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | Ružomberok | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 11 | AS Trencin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Komárno | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slovan Bratislava win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.