· Referee F. Glova · Analysis updated 10:28 UTC
Slovan Bratislava vs Ružomberok Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Slovan Bratislava and 0.85 for Ružomberok, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Slovan Bratislava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Slovan Bratislava win
69.9% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slovan Bratislava home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ružomberok away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.7%
- 1–18.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.57 | 59.4% | 61.4% | 1.63 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Away | 8.10 | 11.3% | 12.3% | 8.13 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.10 | 29.4% | 30.1% | 3.32 | +0.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.90 | 47.9% | 48.5% | 2.06 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.32 | 69.4% | 69.9% | 1.43 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.40 | 38.9% | 39.1% | 2.56 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 82.1% | 82.2% | 1.22 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.53 | 61.1% | 60.9% | 1.64 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.1% | 51.5% | 1.94 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.03 | 88.5% | 87.7% | 1.14 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.75 | 19.3% | 17.8% | 5.62 | -1.5 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.30 | 40.6% | 38.6% | 2.59 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Slovan Bratislava
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Trnava · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Skalica · 1-1 (D)
Ružomberok
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Komárno · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Myjava · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Opava · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 5-0 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2026-02-22T14:30:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 2-2 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2025-12-03T17:00:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 1-2 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2025-02-09T14:30:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 5-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2024-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 2-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2024-05-18T15:00:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 5-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2024-03-08T16:30:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 1-0 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2023-12-03T16:30:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 2-2 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2023-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 2-1 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
- 2022-11-13T16:30:00.000Z · Slovan Bratislava 2-0 Ružomberok (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajska Streda | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 29 |
| 2 | Spartak Trnava | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Žilina | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Slovan Bratislava | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Podbrezová | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Košice | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Zemplín Michalovce | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 8 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 9 | Skalica | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | AS Trencin | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 11 | Ružomberok | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 12 | Komárno | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slovan Bratislava win, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.