Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.50 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Slovan Liberec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Slovan Liberec win

70.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 0.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Slovan Liberec home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Baník Ostrava away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slovan Liberec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 21% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.50 for Baník Ostrava, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Slovan Liberec win70%

Draw21%

Baník Ostrava win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–017.6%
2–016.3%
3–010.1%
0–09.5%
1–18.8%

Recent form

Slovan Liberec

2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sigma Olomouc · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovácko · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Artis · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vlašim · 2-0 (W)

Baník Ostrava

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs GKS Katowice · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kladno · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovácko · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pardubice · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Czech Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Slavia Praha	12	8	4	0	20	28
2	Mlada Boleslav	12	6	3	3	5	21
3	Sigma Olomouc	12	6	3	3	4	21
4	Slovan Liberec	11	6	2	3	6	20
5	Zbrojovka Brno	12	6	2	4	0	20
6	Sparta Praha	11	6	1	4	8	19
7	Teplice	12	5	3	4	1	18
8	FK Jablonec	11	5	2	4	2	17
9	Plzen	11	4	4	3	4	16
10	Bohemians 1905	11	4	4	3	0	16
11	Hradec Králové	11	4	3	4	-3	15
12	Pardubice	11	3	2	6	-4	11
13	Baník Ostrava	11	3	2	6	-11	11
14	Artis	11	2	3	6	-9	9
15	Slovácko	11	1	4	6	-8	7
16	Zlin	12	0	2	10	-15	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Slovan Liberec win, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.