Stadion U Nisy · Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.69 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives Slovan Liberec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Slovan Liberec win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slovan Liberec home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bohemians 1905 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slovan Liberec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.69 for Bohemians 1905, a combined 2.07 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.4%
- 0–012.7%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–012.0%
- 0–18.8%
Recent form
Slovan Liberec
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Artis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vlašim · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Jablonec · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové · 2-0 (W)
Bohemians 1905
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bohemians · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pardubice · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 26 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Teplice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Zbrojovka Brno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Hradec Králové | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 10 | Plzen | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Bohemians 1905 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Baník Ostrava | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Artis | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Pardubice | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Zlin | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Slovan Liberec win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.