Slovan Ljubljana vs Ilirija Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Slovan Ljubljana and 1.53 for Ilirija, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Ilirija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.24 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Slovan Ljubljana home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ilirija away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Slovan Ljubljana win31%

Draw25%

Ilirija win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.9%
0–19.6%
1–29.1%
1–07.8%
2–17.4%

Recent form

Slovan Ljubljana

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bistrica · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dravinja · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brežice · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Triglav · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dren Vrhnika · 0-0 (D)

Ilirija

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Krka · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beltinci · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dekani · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Krško · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jesenice · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · Slovan Ljubljana 2-1 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2026-04-08T14:30:00.000Z · Slovan Ljubljana 2-1 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2025-09-14T14:30:00.000Z · Slovan Ljubljana 2-1 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2025-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Slovan Ljubljana 1-1 Ilirija (2. SNL)
2024-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Slovan Ljubljana 0-0 Ilirija (2. SNL)

2. SNL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tabor Sežana	11	9	1	1	15	28
2	Beltinci	11	8	1	2	17	25
3	Triglav	11	8	1	2	16	25
4	Rudar	11	6	0	5	4	18
5	Bilje	11	6	0	5	-2	18
6	Jesenice	11	5	2	4	3	17
7	Bistrica	11	5	2	4	-1	17
8	Slovan Ljubljana	11	5	2	4	-4	17
9	Ilirija	11	5	1	5	5	16
10	Dekani	11	4	3	4	0	15
11	Dren Vrhnika	11	4	2	5	-4	14
12	Primorje	11	2	4	5	-6	10
13	Krško	11	2	3	6	-10	9
14	Dravinja	11	2	2	7	-14	8
15	Krka	11	2	1	8	-10	7
16	Brežice	11	1	3	7	-9	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.