· Analysis updated 19:55 UTC
Slovan Sabinov vs Stará Ľubovňa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Slovan Sabinov and 1.38 for Stará Ľubovňa, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Stará Ľubovňa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Stará Ľubovňa win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stará Ľubovňa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 15% / 28% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.55 goals for Slovan Sabinov and 1.38 for Stará Ľubovňa, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 32%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 57% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 70/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–120.1%
- 0–014.6%
- 0–213.8%
- 1–111.0%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
Slovan Sabinov
Stará Ľubovňa
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Snina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Medzev · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Raslavice · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Poprad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lipany · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Spartak Medzev | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Raslavice | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Stará Ľubovňa | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Partizán Bardejov | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Spišská Nová Ves | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Lipany | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Poprad | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Snina | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Slávia TU Košice | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 13 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -26 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stará Ľubovňa win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.