· Referee Martin Hajnala · Analysis updated 17:16 UTC
Slovenský Grob vs Nová Dedinka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Slovenský Grob and 1.25 for Nová Dedinka, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Slovenský Grob the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Slovenský Grob home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slovenský Grob to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Slovenský Grob and 1.25 for Nová Dedinka, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Slovenský Grob
- 2025-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nová Dedinka · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-08-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Limbach · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pezinok · 1-1 (D)
- 2020-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rovinka · 0-8 (L)
Nová Dedinka
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs MŠK Senec · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovenský Grob · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-08-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs NMŠK 1922 Bratislava · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · Slovenský Grob 2-2 Nová Dedinka (Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.