· Analysis updated 14:29 UTC
Smail vs Fanja Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Smail and 0.89 for Fanja, a combined total of 1.81. That distribution gives Smail the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.2% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fanja away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Smail to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 33% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Smail and 0.89 for Fanja, a combined 1.81 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 36%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.3%
- 1–015.0%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
Smail
Fanja
- 2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-01T14:25:00.000Z · A vs Bahla · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T13:20:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Dhofar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Smail · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.