Šmartno vs Limbuš Pekre Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Šmartno and 1.53 for Limbuš Pekre, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Šmartno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Šmartno win

58.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.48 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Šmartno home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Šmartno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for Šmartno and 1.53 for Limbuš Pekre, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 72%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Šmartno win58%

Draw19%

Limbuš Pekre win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.6%
3–17.1%
1–16.9%
2–26.5%
2–05.6%

Recent form

Šmartno

2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fužinar · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Limbuš Pekre · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljutomer · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Podvinci · 8-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Čarda Martjanci · 1-7 (L)

Limbuš Pekre

2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Rače · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Šmartno · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Korotan Prevalje · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Ormoz · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hajdina · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

3. SNL - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Odranci	9	7	2	0	16	23
2	Fužinar	9	6	1	2	11	19
3	Šmartno	9	5	1	3	4	16
4	NK Ormoz	9	5	1	3	4	16
5	Hajdina	10	4	4	2	3	16
6	Čarda Martjanci	9	4	3	2	7	15
7	Videm	10	4	2	4	-2	14
8	Podvinci	10	4	2	4	-4	14
9	Korotan Prevalje	9	2	5	2	1	11
10	Rače	9	2	4	3	0	10
11	Dobrovce	9	3	0	6	-11	9
12	Ljutomer	10	2	2	6	-4	8
13	Limbuš Pekre	9	1	2	6	-15	5
14	Šampion Celje	9	1	1	7	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Šmartno win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.