· Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Šmartno vs Šampion Celje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Šmartno and 1.33 for Šampion Celje, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Šmartno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Šmartno win
60.7% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Šmartno home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Šampion Celje away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Šmartno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Šmartno and 1.33 for Šampion Celje, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–07.0%
- 2–26.1%
Recent form
Šmartno
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fužinar · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Limbuš Pekre · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljutomer · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Podvinci · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Čarda Martjanci · 1-7 (L)
Šampion Celje
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Odranci · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dobrovce · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fužinar · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Limbuš Pekre · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljutomer · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. SNL - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Fužinar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | Šmartno | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Ormoz | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Hajdina | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Čarda Martjanci | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Videm | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Podvinci | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Korotan Prevalje | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Rače | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Dobrovce | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 12 | Ljutomer | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Limbuš Pekre | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 5 |
| 14 | Šampion Celje | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Šmartno win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.