Smedby vs Fittja Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Smedby and 1.17 for Fittja, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Smedby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Smedby home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fittja away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Smedby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Smedby and 1.17 for Fittja, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Smedby win45%

Draw26%

Fittja win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.1%
1–010.3%
2–19.1%
0–18.1%
2–07.8%

Recent form

Smedby

2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eker Örebro · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlslund · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Örebro Syrianska · 2-0 (W)
2026-06-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Lindo FF · 0-2 (L)
2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Haninge · 1-4 (L)

Fittja

2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Farsta · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacka Iliria · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Smedby · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Forward · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Syrianska FC · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · Smedby 0-1 Fittja (Division 2 - Södra Svealand)
2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · Smedby 3-5 Fittja (Division 2 - Södra Svealand)

Division 2 - Södra Svealand table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Farsta	26	16	4	6	25	52
2	Sleipner	26	15	6	5	19	51
3	Nyköping	26	14	4	8	16	46
4	Forward	26	13	6	7	15	45
5	Rågsved	26	13	6	7	11	45
6	Haninge	26	13	5	8	12	44
7	Smedby	26	10	6	10	3	36
8	Fittja	26	11	3	12	0	36
9	Örebro Syrianska	26	10	4	12	1	34
10	Karlslund	26	8	7	11	-6	31
11	Nacka Iliria	26	9	3	14	-16	30
12	Syrianska FC	26	7	5	14	-17	26
13	Lindo FF	26	6	2	18	-20	20
14	Eker Örebro	26	5	3	18	-43	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.