· Analysis updated 15:02 UTC
Smiltene vs Riga FC II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Smiltene and 1.92 for Riga FC II, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Riga FC II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Smiltene home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Riga FC II away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga FC II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 35% / 22% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Smiltene and 1.92 for Riga FC II, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
Smiltene
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Skanste · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga FC II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tukums II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova 2 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga Mariners · 4-1 (W)
Riga FC II
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mārupe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leevon / PPK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Skanste · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs JFK Ventspils · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga Mariners · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 24 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 80 | 63 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 56 |
| 3 | Riga Mariners | 24 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 53 |
| 4 | Leevon / PPK | 24 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 53 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 41 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | -2 | 33 |
| 7 | Riga FC II | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Super Nova 2 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 29 |
| 9 | Skanste | 24 | 8 | 2 | 14 | -4 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -25 | 23 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -37 | 19 |
| 12 | Rīgas FS II | 23 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -27 | 16 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 23 | 1 | 3 | 19 | -53 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.