· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Smiltene vs Riga Mariners Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Smiltene and 3.13 for Riga Mariners, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Riga Mariners the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Riga Mariners win
77.6% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 3.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Smiltene home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Riga Mariners away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga Mariners to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 10% / 13% / 78% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Smiltene and 3.13 for Riga Mariners, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
22%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–38.2%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–37.6%
- 0–27.3%
- 1–46.4%
Recent form
Smiltene
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tukums II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova 2 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga Mariners · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs JDFS Alberts · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Metta / LU · 0-6 (L)
Riga Mariners
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Valmiera / BSS · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Smiltene · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rēzekne FA · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga FC II · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 76 | 57 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 52 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 52 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 47 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 40 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 32 |
| 7 | Riga FC II | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -3 | 29 |
| 8 | Skanste | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -1 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -27 | 19 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -34 | 18 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -24 | 15 |
| 13 | Rīgas FS II | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -29 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -52 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Riga Mariners win, at 77.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.