Smorgon vs FC Slutsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Smorgon and 1.58 for FC Slutsk, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives FC Slutsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Slutsk win

50.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.01 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Smorgon home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Slutsk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Slutsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 24% / 25% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Smorgon and 1.58 for FC Slutsk, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Smorgon win24%

Draw25%

FC Slutsk win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–111.9%
1–29.5%
0–29.4%
1–07.6%

Recent form

Smorgon

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Osipovichy · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lida · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Niva · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Slutsk · 1-1 (D)

FC Slutsk

2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gomel II · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsha · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Volna · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Smorgon · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bumprom · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Slutsk	27	17	6	4	28	57
2	Niva	27	17	4	6	36	55
3	Lida	27	17	3	7	8	54
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	27	16	5	6	25	53
5	Slonim	27	14	5	8	17	47
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	26	14	3	9	5	45
7	Bumprom	27	12	5	10	11	41
8	Shakhter Soligorsk	27	11	7	9	8	40
9	Dinamo Minsk II	25	10	5	10	5	35
10	Ostrovets FC	27	8	11	8	-2	35
11	Volna	27	10	4	13	-10	34
12	Smorgon	27	9	6	12	-3	33
13	Minsk II	27	9	3	15	-13	30
14	Orsha	27	7	6	14	-23	27
15	Uni Minsk	26	6	8	12	-10	26
16	BATE II	27	5	7	15	-25	22
17	Gomel II	27	5	6	16	-19	21
18	Osipovichy	27	5	4	18	-38	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Slutsk win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.