Smorgon vs Niva Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Smorgon and 2.20 for Niva, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Niva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Niva win

52.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 2.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Smorgon home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Niva away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Niva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 27% / 20% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Smorgon and 2.20 for Niva, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Smorgon win27%

Draw20%

Niva win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–28.8%
1–18.0%
2–26.8%
1–36.5%
2–16.2%

Recent form

Smorgon

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Osipovichy · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lida · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Niva · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Slutsk · 1-1 (D)

Niva

2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gomel II · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsha · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Volna · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Smorgon · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Slutsk	30	20	6	4	32	66
2	Lida	30	20	3	7	11	63
3	Niva	30	19	5	6	41	62
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	30	18	5	7	29	59
5	Slonim	30	16	5	9	18	53
6	Shakhter Soligorsk	30	13	8	9	14	47
7	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	29	14	3	12	-2	45
8	Bumprom	30	12	5	13	6	41
9	Ostrovets FC	30	9	12	9	-1	39
10	Smorgon	30	11	6	13	-4	39
11	Volna	30	11	5	14	-11	38
12	Dinamo Minsk II	27	10	5	12	1	35
13	Minsk II	30	10	3	17	-16	33
14	Uni Minsk	29	7	9	13	-8	30
15	Orsha	30	8	6	16	-21	30
16	Gomel II	30	6	6	18	-20	24
17	Osipovichy	30	6	5	19	-40	23
18	BATE II	29	5	7	17	-29	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Niva win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.