Sogdiana Sport Complex · Analysis updated 13:18 UTC
Sogdiana vs Andijan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sogdiana and 0.89 for Andijan, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Sogdiana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sogdiana win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sogdiana home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Andijan away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sogdiana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Sogdiana and 0.89 for Andijan, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.9%
Recent form
Sogdiana
- 2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bunyodkor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olmaliq · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Xorazm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mash'al · 5-2 (W)
Andijan
- 2026-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qizilqum · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxoro · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Nasaf · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpik-Mobiuz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kokand-1912 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sogdiana win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.