Sogdiana Sport Complex · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Sogdiana vs Jayxun Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sogdiana and 0.64 for Jayxun, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives Sogdiana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sogdiana win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sogdiana home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sogdiana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 26% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Sogdiana and 0.64 for Jayxun, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.5%
- 2–013.4%
- 0–011.5%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
Sogdiana
- 2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bunyodkor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olmaliq · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Xorazm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mash'al · 5-2 (W)
Jayxun
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sogdiana win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.