Sogdiana vs Mash'al Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Sogdiana and 1.03 for Mash'al, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Sogdiana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sogdiana win

59.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sogdiana home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mash'al away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Sogdiana win59%

Draw22%

Mash'al win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–110.1%
2–110.0%
1–09.8%
2–09.7%
3–16.6%

Recent form

Sogdiana

2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Andijan · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bunyodkor · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olmaliq · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Xorazm · 0-0 (D)

Mash'al

2026-10-22T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bunyodkor · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olmaliq · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kokand-1912 · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · Sogdiana 3-1 Mash'al (Super League)
2025-08-10T13:30:00.000Z · Sogdiana 2-0 Mash'al (Super League)
2025-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · Sogdiana 0-1 Mash'al (Super League)
2022-08-24T14:00:00.000Z · Sogdiana 5-2 Mash'al (Cup)
2021-09-21T11:30:00.000Z · Sogdiana 0-0 Mash'al (Super League)
2021-04-15T13:20:00.000Z · Sogdiana 2-2 Mash'al (Super League)
2020-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · Sogdiana 0-1 Mash'al (Super League)
2020-02-29T09:30:00.000Z · Sogdiana 0-3 Mash'al (Super League)
2017-10-13T11:30:00.000Z · Sogdiana 0-0 Mash'al (Super League)
2017-05-06T13:00:00.000Z · Sogdiana 3-0 Mash'al (Super League)

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi	24	17	4	3	35	55
2	Pakhtakor	24	15	8	1	21	53
3	Navbahor	24	13	7	4	18	46
4	Buxoro	24	12	4	8	5	40
5	Olmaliq	24	11	6	7	3	39
6	Lokomotiv	24	11	6	7	9	39
7	Nasaf	24	10	8	6	13	38
8	Qizilqum	24	10	3	11	-6	33
9	Andijan	24	9	3	12	-3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	8	6	10	-3	30
11	Sogdiana	24	8	5	11	-6	29
12	Surkhon	24	7	7	10	-9	28
13	Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	-15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	5	8	11	-10	23
15	Xorazm	24	5	8	11	-14	23
16	Mash'al	25	1	1	23	-38	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sogdiana win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.