· Analysis updated 03:05 UTC
Sogndal II vs Brann II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.46 expected goals for Sogndal II and 2.16 for Brann II, a combined total of 4.63. That distribution gives Sogndal II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sogndal II win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
2.46 – 2.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sogndal II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brann II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sogndal II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 19% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.46 goals for Sogndal II and 2.16 for Brann II, a combined 4.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.4%
- 3–25.7%
- 1–25.6%
- 3–15.3%
Recent form
Sogndal II
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Austevoll · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 0-2 (L)
Brann II
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Varegg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Askøy · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Fyllingsdalen · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 4-4 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sogndal II win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.