· Analysis updated 18:27 UTC
Sogndal II vs Fana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.69 expected goals for Sogndal II and 2.51 for Fana, a combined total of 5.19. That distribution gives Sogndal II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
2.69 – 2.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sogndal II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fana away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sogndal II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 18% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.69 goals for Sogndal II and 2.51 for Fana, a combined 5.19 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.3%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–35.3%
- 2–15.0%
- 3–34.7%
Recent form
Sogndal II
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Austevoll · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 0-2 (L)
Fana
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vard · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.