· Analysis updated 15:49 UTC
Sogndal II vs Fyllingsdalen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Sogndal II and 1.28 for Fyllingsdalen, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Sogndal II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sogndal II win
61.8% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sogndal II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fyllingsdalen away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sogndal II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Sogndal II and 1.28 for Fyllingsdalen, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–17.4%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Sogndal II
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Austevoll · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 0-2 (L)
Fyllingsdalen
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stord · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Brann II · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · Sogndal II 7-0 Fyllingsdalen (3. Division - Girone 3)
- 2026-05-11T17:00:00.000Z · Sogndal II 6-0 Fyllingsdalen (3. Division - Girone 3)
- 2021-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · Sogndal II 1-5 Fyllingsdalen (3. Division - Girone 4)
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sogndal II win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.