· Analysis updated 12:01 UTC
Sogndal II vs Gneist Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.76 expected goals for Sogndal II and 1.72 for Gneist, a combined total of 5.47. That distribution gives Sogndal II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sogndal II win
74.2% probability
Expected goals
3.76 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sogndal II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gneist away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sogndal II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 13% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.76 goals for Sogndal II and 1.72 for Gneist, a combined 5.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.4%
- 4–16.0%
- 3–25.5%
- 4–25.1%
- 2–15.1%
Recent form
Sogndal II
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Austevoll · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 0-2 (L)
Gneist
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Djerv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Austevoll · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Varegg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fyllingsdalen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Åsane II · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sogndal II win, at 74.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.