· Analysis updated 11:07 UTC
Sogndal II vs Varegg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Sogndal II and 2.00 for Varegg, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Varegg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.9% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sogndal II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Varegg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varegg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 38% / 21% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Sogndal II and 2.00 for Varegg, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.6%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.1%
Recent form
Sogndal II
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Austevoll · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vard · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varegg · 0-2 (L)
Varegg
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Førde · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stord · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.