Sogndal vs hodd Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Sogndal and 1.60 for hodd, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Sogndal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Sogndal win

49.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sogndal home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
hodd away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sogndal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Sogndal and 1.60 for hodd, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sogndal win49%

Draw21%

hodd win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.7%
1–18.3%
2–27.0%
1–26.6%
3–16.1%

Recent form

Sogndal

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabaek · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sotra · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stromsgodset · 2-3 (L)

hodd

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Egersund · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ODD Ballklubb · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Træff · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyn · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stromsgodset	27	18	6	3	43	60
2	Kongsvinger	27	18	5	4	39	59
3	Haugesund	27	19	2	6	33	59
4	Stabaek	27	16	4	7	30	52
5	ODD Ballklubb	27	13	6	8	13	45
6	Bryne	27	12	3	12	-1	39
7	hodd	27	11	5	11	-6	38
8	Ranheim	27	10	5	12	1	35
9	Egersund	27	9	7	11	-11	34
10	Strommen	27	9	6	12	-11	33
11	Lyn	27	9	4	14	-16	31
12	Moss	27	8	5	14	-16	29
13	Sogndal	27	7	6	14	-16	27
14	Sandnes ULF	27	7	5	15	-17	26
15	Asane	27	6	5	16	-24	23
16	Raufoss	27	6	2	19	-41	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sogndal win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.