Sogndal vs Kongsvinger Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sogndal and 3.05 for Kongsvinger, a combined total of 4.57. That distribution gives Kongsvinger the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Kongsvinger win

68.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.52 – 3.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sogndal home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kongsvinger away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kongsvinger to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 17% / 15% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Sogndal and 3.05 for Kongsvinger, a combined 4.57 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sogndal win17%

Draw15%

Kongsvinger win68%

Double chance 1X

32%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals67%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

1–37.4%
1–27.3%
1–45.7%
2–35.7%
2–25.6%

Recent form

Sogndal

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabaek · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sotra · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stromsgodset · 2-3 (L)

Kongsvinger

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim · 6-2 (W)
2026-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Moss · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs hodd · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eidsvold · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Egersund · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kongsvinger	25	17	5	3	39	56
2	Haugesund	25	18	2	5	35	56
3	Stromsgodset	25	16	6	3	34	54
4	Stabaek	25	14	4	7	26	46
5	ODD Ballklubb	25	12	6	7	13	42
6	Bryne	25	12	2	11	1	38
7	hodd	25	10	4	11	-10	34
8	Egersund	25	9	5	11	-11	32
9	Ranheim	25	9	4	12	-1	31
10	Lyn	25	8	4	13	-14	28
11	Moss	25	8	4	13	-15	28
12	Strommen	25	7	6	12	-17	27
13	Sandnes ULF	25	7	5	13	-10	26
14	Sogndal	24	6	5	13	-16	23
15	Asane	25	6	5	14	-18	23
16	Raufoss	24	6	1	17	-36	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kongsvinger win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.