Stadionul Areni · Analysis updated 07:33 UTC
Soimii Gura Humorului vs Cetatea Suceava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Soimii Gura Humorului and 1.49 for Cetatea Suceava, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Soimii Gura Humorului the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Soimii Gura Humorului win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Soimii Gura Humorului home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cetatea Suceava away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Soimii Gura Humorului to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Soimii Gura Humorului and 1.49 for Cetatea Suceava, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Soimii Gura Humorului
- 2026-05-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Popești-Leordeni · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Târgu Secuiesc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sepsi II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Blejoi · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Lieşti · 2-1 (W)
Cetatea Suceava
- 2026-10-24T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T08:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Reşiţa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dumbrăviţa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bacau · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSM FC Vaslui | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 |
| 2 | Târgu Secuiesc | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | CSM Adjud | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | USV Iaşi | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bradul Putna | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 17 |
| 6 | Aerostar Bacau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Odorheiu Secuiesc | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Bacău II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Gheorgheni | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Viitorul Onesti | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -16 | 4 |
| 12 | Paşcani | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Soimii Gura Humorului win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.