· Analysis updated 09:01 UTC
Soimii Gura Humorului vs Sepsi II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Soimii Gura Humorului and 0.50 for Sepsi II, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Soimii Gura Humorului the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Soimii Gura Humorului win
81.0% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Soimii Gura Humorului home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sepsi II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Soimii Gura Humorului to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 14% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Soimii Gura Humorului and 0.50 for Sepsi II, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.6%
- 3–013.0%
- 1–012.4%
- 4–08.1%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Soimii Gura Humorului
- 2026-05-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Popești-Leordeni · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Târgu Secuiesc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sepsi II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Blejoi · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Lieşti · 2-1 (W)
Sepsi II
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpic Zărneşti · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baicoi · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Sibiu · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kids Tâmpa Braşov · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Săcele · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Play-offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cetatea Suceava | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 34 |
| 2 | Soimii Gura Humorului | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Sporting Lieşti | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 25 |
| 4 | Târgu Secuiesc | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 19 |
| 5 | Viitorul Onesti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 6 | Stiinta Miroslava | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Sepsi II | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 8 | Blejoi | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
| 1 | Ştefăneşti | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 29 |
| 2 | Popești-Leordeni | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 29 |
| 3 | Flacăra Moreni | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | Agricola Borcea | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Olimpic Zărneşti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 18 |
| 6 | Înainte Modelu | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 7 | Tricolorul Breaza | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 11 |
| 8 | Dunarea Calarasi | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 10 |
| 1 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 34 |
| 2 | Minerul Lupeni | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 27 |
| 3 | CS U Craiova II | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 25 |
| 4 | Cetatea | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 18 |
| 5 | Jiul Petroşani | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 6 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 7 | Academica Balș | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 8 | LPS HD Clinceni | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -14 | 8 |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 32 |
| 2 | Unirea Alba Iulia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | SCM Zalău | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | Sănătatea Cluj | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Minaur Baia Mare | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Unirea Tășnad | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 18 |
| 7 | Metalurgistul Cugir | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 8 | Viitorul Arad | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -15 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Soimii Gura Humorului win, at 81.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.