Stadion Miejski w Kleczewie · Analysis updated 00:35 UTC
Sokół Kleczew vs Podhale Nowy Targ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sokół Kleczew and 1.60 for Podhale Nowy Targ, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Podhale Nowy Targ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sokół Kleczew home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Podhale Nowy Targ away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Podhale Nowy Targ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 24% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Sokół Kleczew and 1.60 for Podhale Nowy Targ, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
Sokół Kleczew
- 2026-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Resovia Rzeszów · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hutnik Kraków · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Świt Skolwin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avia Świdnik · 2-2 (D)
Podhale Nowy Targ
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.