Stadion Sokoła Ostróda · Analysis updated 08:28 UTC
Sokół Ostróda vs Legionovia Legionowo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sokół Ostróda and 2.00 for Legionovia Legionowo, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Legionovia Legionowo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Legionovia Legionowo win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sokół Ostróda home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Legionovia Legionowo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Legionovia Legionowo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 23% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Sokół Ostróda and 2.00 for Legionovia Legionowo, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Sokół Ostróda
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kleczew · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Mławianka Mława · 0-4 (L)
- 2023-06-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ursus Warszawa · 2-1 (W)
- 2023-06-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Błonianka Błonie · 2-1 (W)
- 2023-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki · 1-2 (L)
Legionovia Legionowo
- 2024-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Broń Radom · 2-2 (D)
- 2024-06-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelikan Łowicz · 1-2 (L)
- 2024-05-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa II · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-05-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Zambrów · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-05-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bełchatów · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 31 |
| 3 | Swit | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Pelikan Łowicz | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Wisła Płock II | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Warta Sieradz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 9 | Olimpia Zambrów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia II | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Widzew II | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| 13 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | ŁKS Łódź II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Mławianka Mława | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -15 | 11 |
| 18 | Łomża | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Legionovia Legionowo win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.