Hlavni stadion SK Sokol Brozany · Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
Sokol Brozany vs Sokol Zápy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Sokol Brozany and 2.04 for Sokol Zápy, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Sokol Zápy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sokol Zápy win
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 2.04
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sokol Brozany home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sokol Zápy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sokol Zápy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Sokol Brozany and 2.04 for Sokol Zápy, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–210.0%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–36.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 2.15 | 43.0% | 44.7% | 2.24 | +1.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.45 | 38.3% | 38.8% | 2.58 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 5.00 | 17.7% | 18.0% | 5.56 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.44 | 61.3% | 61.2% | 1.63 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.0% | 20.8% | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 79.5% | 79.2% | 1.26 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.14 | 82.3% | 82.0% | 1.22 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 55.3% | 1.81 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sokol Brozany
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Zápy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Velké Hamry · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Neratovice-Byškovice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pardubice II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Horní Ředice · 3-1 (W)
Sokol Zápy
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Čáslav · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokol Brozany · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Baník Souš · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - CFL B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sokol Zápy | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Jablonec II | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Mladá Boleslav II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 4 | Benátky nad Jizerou | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Pardubice II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Teplice II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Baník Souš | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
| 8 | Varnsdorf | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Čáslav | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Hradec Králové II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Horní Ředice | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Neratovice-Byškovice | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Sokol Brozany | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Chrudim | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Slovan Liberec II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 16 | Velké Hamry | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sokol Zápy win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.