Sokol Hostouň vs Chomutov Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Sokol Hostouň and 1.34 for Chomutov, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Sokol Hostouň the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sokol Hostouň win

49.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 1.34

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sokol Hostouň home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chomutov away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sokol Hostouň to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Sokol Hostouň and 1.34 for Chomutov, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sokol Hostouň win50%

Draw23%

Chomutov win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–19.4%
1–07.6%
2–07.0%
1–26.8%

Recent form

Sokol Hostouň

2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Psáry · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Slavoj Vyšehrad · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Velvary · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Újezd Praha 4 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brandýs nad Labem · 4-2 (W)

Chomutov

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ostrov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovy Vary · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hvězda Cheb · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slaný · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Štětí · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sokol Hostouň	10	7	1	2	18	22
2	Chomutov	10	7	1	2	12	22
3	Újezd Praha 4	10	6	2	2	5	20
4	Rapid Psáry	10	6	1	3	12	19
5	Baník Sokolov	10	6	0	4	8	18
6	Meteor Praha	10	5	1	4	2	16
7	Brandýs nad Labem	10	5	0	5	0	15
8	Slaný	10	4	2	4	8	14
9	Tempo Praha	10	4	2	4	2	14
10	Slovan Velvary	10	4	2	4	-5	14
11	Karlovy Vary	10	4	1	5	2	13
12	Štětí	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Ostrov	10	3	1	6	-10	10
14	Slavoj Vyšehrad	10	2	1	7	-14	7
15	Hvězda Cheb	10	2	1	7	-19	7
16	Ústí nad Labem II	10	1	3	6	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sokol Hostouň win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.