· Analysis updated 11:59 UTC
Sokol Zápy vs Baník Souš Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Sokol Zápy and 0.89 for Baník Souš, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Sokol Zápy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sokol Zápy win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sokol Zápy home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Baník Souš away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 54.1% vs market 43.5%, edge +10.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 43.5% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +10.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 47.8% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.1% | 22.2% | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 77.7% | 77.8% | 1.29 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.0% | 26.0% | 3.85 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 51.9% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.6% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 45.9% | 2.18 | -10.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sokol Zápy
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Čáslav · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokol Brozany · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Baník Souš · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec II · 2-1 (W)
Baník Souš
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sokol Zápy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Velké Hamry · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Neratovice-Byškovice · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Horní Ředice · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Chrudim · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · Sokol Zápy 3-1 Baník Souš (3. liga - CFL B)
- 2026-03-14T13:30:00.000Z · Sokol Zápy 1-0 Baník Souš (3. liga - CFL B)
- 2025-08-17T15:00:00.000Z · Sokol Zápy 2-0 Baník Souš (3. liga - CFL B)
- 2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Sokol Zápy 0-0 Baník Souš (3. liga - CFL B)
- 2024-10-26T12:30:00.000Z · Sokol Zápy 0-2 Baník Souš (3. liga - CFL B)
- 2024-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · Sokol Zápy 2-1 Baník Souš (3. liga - CFL B)
- 2023-11-04T13:00:00.000Z · Sokol Zápy 2-2 Baník Souš (3. liga - CFL B)
- 2023-05-06T13:00:00.000Z · Sokol Zápy 2-0 Baník Souš (3. liga - CFL B)
- 2022-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · Sokol Zápy 1-0 Baník Souš (3. liga - CFL B)
3. liga - CFL B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mladá Boleslav II | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 26 |
| 2 | Jablonec II | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 3 | Sokol Zápy | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Benátky nad Jizerou | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Pardubice II | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | Baník Souš | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Neratovice-Byškovice | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 8 | Varnsdorf | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Čáslav | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 14 |
| 10 | Teplice II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Chrudim | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 13 |
| 12 | Slovan Liberec II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 13 | Hradec Králové II | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Horní Ředice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 9 |
| 15 | Sokol Brozany | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Velké Hamry | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -20 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sokol Zápy win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.