Sokol Zápy vs Jablonec II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Sokol Zápy and 1.69 for Jablonec II, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Sokol Zápy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sokol Zápy home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jablonec II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sokol Zápy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Sokol Zápy and 1.69 for Jablonec II, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Sokol Zápy win40%

Draw23%

Jablonec II win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.6%
2–18.3%
1–28.1%
2–27.0%
1–05.7%

Recent form

Sokol Zápy

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Čáslav · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokol Brozany · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Baník Souš · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Liberec II · 2-1 (W)

Jablonec II

2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Čáslav · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Brozany · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Souš · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Varnsdorf · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - CFL B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mladá Boleslav II	12	8	2	2	21	26
2	Jablonec II	11	7	3	1	16	24
3	Sokol Zápy	11	7	3	1	13	24
4	Benátky nad Jizerou	12	5	6	1	9	21
5	Pardubice II	10	5	2	3	11	17
6	Baník Souš	11	5	1	5	7	16
7	Neratovice-Byškovice	12	4	4	4	-2	16
8	Varnsdorf	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Čáslav	11	4	2	5	-10	14
10	Teplice II	11	4	1	6	-3	13
11	Chrudim	12	3	4	5	-10	13
12	Slovan Liberec II	11	3	2	6	-8	11
13	Hradec Králové II	11	2	4	5	-3	10
14	Horní Ředice	10	3	0	7	-13	9
15	Sokol Brozany	11	1	5	5	-8	8
16	Velké Hamry	12	2	2	8	-20	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.