Estadio Antonio Romero · Analysis updated 12:10 UTC
Sol de América vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sol de América and 0.73 for Bartolomé Mitre, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Sol de América the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sol de América win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sol de América home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bartolomé Mitre away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.6%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–010.1%
Recent form
Sol de América
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Bartolomé Mitre
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T22:00:00.000Z · Sol de América 2-1 Bartolomé Mitre (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-06-14T18:45:00.000Z · Sol de América 0-0 Bartolomé Mitre (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-04-11T19:30:00.000Z · Sol de América 0-0 Bartolomé Mitre (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · Sol de América 0-1 Bartolomé Mitre (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-07-05T18:30:00.000Z · Sol de América 1-1 Bartolomé Mitre (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-05-04T18:45:00.000Z · Sol de América 0-1 Bartolomé Mitre (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sol de América win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.