Estadio Antonio Romero · Analysis updated 19:01 UTC
Sol de América vs Cipolletti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sol de América and 0.95 for Cipolletti, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Sol de América the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sol de América win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sol de América home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cipolletti away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sol de América to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Sol de América and 0.95 for Cipolletti, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–09.2%
Recent form
Sol de América
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Cipolletti
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de América · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Antoniana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Alvarado · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sol de América win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.