SOL DE America vs Encarnación Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for SOL DE America and 1.08 for Encarnación, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Encarnación the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SOL DE America home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Encarnación away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Encarnación to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 33% / 30% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for SOL DE America and 1.08 for Encarnación, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

SOL DE America win33%

Draw30%

Encarnación win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

0–113.5%
1–113.5%
0–012.6%
1–012.6%
0–27.3%

Recent form

SOL DE America

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguari AC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Capiata · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente F.b.c. · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tacuary · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tembetary · 1-1 (D)

Encarnación

2026-10-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Resistencia · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SOL DE America · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Capiata · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tacuary · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division Intermedia table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	General Caballero	28	17	5	6	22	56
2	Deportivo Santani	28	17	3	8	20	54
3	12 de Junio VH	28	14	9	5	9	51
4	Independiente F.b.c.	28	11	10	7	8	43
5	Benjamín Aceval	28	12	6	10	5	42
6	Sportivo Carapeguá	28	12	6	10	-5	42
7	SOL DE America	28	9	14	5	6	41
8	Paraguari AC	28	12	5	11	3	41
9	Resistencia	28	9	9	10	-1	36
10	Atlético Tembetary	28	10	6	12	-6	36
11	Fernando De La Mora	28	9	7	12	-8	34
12	Deportivo Capiata	28	7	11	10	-4	32
13	3 de Noviembre	28	7	8	13	-6	29
14	Guairena FC	28	7	7	14	-13	28
15	Tacuary	28	4	12	12	-15	24
16	Encarnación	28	6	4	18	-15	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.