Estadio Antonio Romero · Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
Sol de América vs Sportivo Belgrano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sol de América and 0.70 for Sportivo Belgrano, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Sol de América the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sol de América win
51.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sol de América home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportivo Belgrano away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sol de América to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 29% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Sol de América and 0.70 for Sportivo Belgrano, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–19.2%
Recent form
Sol de América
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cipolletti · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 2-0 (W)
Sportivo Belgrano
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de América · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sol de América win, at 51.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.