Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni · Analysis updated 11:48 UTC
SOL DE America vs Sportivo Trinidense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.49 expected goals for SOL DE America and 1.19 for Sportivo Trinidense, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives SOL DE America the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SOL DE America win
65.6% probability
Expected goals
2.49 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SOL DE America home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sportivo Trinidense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SOL DE America to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.49 goals for SOL DE America and 1.19 for Sportivo Trinidense, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–17.5%
- 3–06.5%
Recent form
SOL DE America
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguari AC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Capiata · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente F.b.c. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tacuary · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tembetary · 1-1 (D)
Sportivo Trinidense
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Guarani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Recoleta · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Ameliano · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Paraguay table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SOL DE America | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cerro Porteno | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Deportivo Recoleta | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Atlético Tembetary | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Fernando De La Mora | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Olimpia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Nacional Asuncion | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Independiente F.b.c. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | 4 de Mayo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | 2 de Mayo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Guairena FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Sportivo Iteno | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Libertad Asuncion | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | General Caballero | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | 29 de Septiembre FBC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Tacuary | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Rubio NU | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 20 | 1 de Marzo Pilar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | 12 de Octubre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Fulgencio Yegros | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Club Guarani | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Sportivo Trinidense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Resistencia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Sportivo Ameliano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Cristóbal Colón JAS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Benjamín Aceval | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Deportivo Santani | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Paraguari AC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Humaitá | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 32 | Deportivo Obrero | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SOL DE America win, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.